Approaches to providing missing transfer parameter values in the ERICA Tool: how well do they work?

A required parameter for the ERICA Tool is the concentration ratio (CR), which is used to describe the transfer from environmental media to a range of organisms. For the original parameterisation of the ERICA Tool, 60% of these values were derived using a variety of extrapolation approaches, including the application of allometric models, the use of values for a similar organism or element with similar biogeochemical behaviour and the use of values from a different ecosystem. Although similar approaches are applied in other assessment systems, there has been little attempt to see how well these approaches perform. In this paper, CR values in the ERICA Tool derived using extrapolation approaches are compared to more recently available empirical data from the IAEA wildlife transfer database. The primary purpose of the default CR database in the ERICA Tool, and other models, is to enable the user to conduct conservative screening assessments. Conservatism was therefore introduced to the analyses by selecting the 95th percentile CR values for subsequent calculations. The extrapolation methodologies are not guaranteed to provide conservative estimates of empirical 95th percentile CRs. For the terrestrial ecosystem, the extrapolation methods provide underpredictions of empirical 95th percentiles as often as they produce overpredictions. In a few cases the underestimation of CR values, when considering all ecosystems, is substantial - by orders of magnitude - which is clearly unacceptable for a screening assessment. Thus, although extrapolation approaches will remain an essential component of screening assessments in the future, because data gaps will always be present, diligence is important in their application. Finally, by synthesizing the results from the current analyses and through other considerations, some recommendations are provided with regards to modifying the original guidance on use of extrapolation approaches in the ERICA Tool

Post-Chernobyl surveys of radiocaesium in soil, vegetation, wildlife and fungi in Great Britain

The data set "Post Chernobyl surveys of radiocaesium in soil, vegetation, wildlife and fungi in Great Britain" was developed to enable data collected by the Natural Environment Research Council after the Chernobyl accident to be made publicly available. Data for samples collected between May 1986 (immediately after Chernobyl) to spring 1997 are presented. Additional data to radiocaesium concentrations are presented where available. The data have value in trying to assess the contribution of new sources of radiocaesium in the environment, providing baseline data for future planned releases and to aid the development and testing of models. The data are freely available for non-commercial use under Open Government Licence terms and conditions. doi:10.5285/d0a6a8bf-68f0-4935-8b43-4e597c3bf251. Supporting information to assist with the reuse of this data is available from the Environmental Information Data Centre (EIDC) (http://eidc.ceh.ac.uk/)

Exploring taxonomic and phylogenetic relationships to predict radiocaesium transfer to marine biota

One potentially useful approach to fill data gaps for concentration ratios, CRs, is based upon the hypothesis that an underlying taxonomic and/or phylogenetic relationship exists for radionuclide transfer. The objective of this study was to explore whether these relationships could be used to explain variation in the transfer of radiocaesium to a wide range of marine organisms. CR data for 137Cs were classified in relation to taxonomic family, order, class and phylum. A Residual Maximum Likelihood (REML) mixed-model regression modelling approach was adopted. The existence of any patterns were then explored using phylogenetic trees constructed with mitochondrial COI gene sequences from various biota groups and mapping the REML residual means onto these trees. A comparison of the predictions made using REML with blind datasets allowed the efficacy of the procedure to be tested. The only significant correlation between predicted and measured activity concentrations was revealed at the taxonomic level of order when comparing REML analysis output with data from the Barents Sea Region. For this single case a correlation 0.80 (Spearman rank) was derived which was significant at the 0.01 level (1-tailed test) although this was not the case once a (Bonferroni) correction was applied. The application of the REML approach to marine datasets has met with limited success, and the phylogenetic trees illustrate complications of using predictions based on values from different levels of taxonomic organization, where predicted values for the order level can mask the values at lower taxonomic levels. Any influence of taxonomy and phylogeny on transfer is not immediately conspicuous and categorizing marine organisms in this way is limited in providing a potentially robust prognostic extrapolation tool. Other factors may plausibly affect transfer to a much greater degree in marine systems, such as quite diverse life histories and different diets, which may confound any phylogenetic pattern

Education and training activities in the Euratom CONFIDENCE project

The education and training activities formed a key part of the CONFIDENCE project and were integrated into the research programme. The activities varied from training courses through to workshops and courses for students, integrating achievements from the CONFIDENCE project. The tasks were developed and realised in collaboration with academic departments’ outwith the CONFIDENCE consortium. Educational materials as well as lectures, round table discussions and table-top exercises have been conducted at universities. In such a way we have reached the next generation of Radiation Protection specialists. Junior scientists, post-doctoral researchers and PhD. students have also been involved in CONFIDENCE’s core research activities. A final dissemination meeting focused on communicating the main achievements of the project

Variation in the transfer of radionuclide to freshwater fish: phylogeny or feeding strategy?

For both terrestrial vascular plants and marine organisms if has been demonstrated the differences in radionuclide transfer between species can be related to their evolutionary history or phylogeny. Relationships between phylogeny and radionuclide transfer offer a potential approach to help to derive best estimate values if data for a given species-radionuclide are not available. In this paper we describe the analyses of data for radionuclide transfer to freshwater fish from a data base recently compiled to support activities of both the IAEA and ICRP. There are sufficient data in the database to test the hypothesis that radionuclide transfer can be related to the evolutionary of freshwater fish for caesium, strontium and uranium. For instance, the database contains 750 entries for caesium considering nearly 70 species of fish. Initial results indicate that phylogeny does explain some of the variation in radionuclide transfer between species of fish. However, feeding strategy also explains variation in radionuclide transfer between species. In this paper we will compare our results to establish if phylogeny or feeding strategy is the most useful predictor of radionuclide transfer to freshwater fish

Applying process-based models to the Borssele scenario

The objective of this paper is to consider the implications of employing process-based models on predictions for radionuclide activity concentrations in grass and cow milk. The FDMT (Food Chain and Dose Module for Terrestrial Pathways as used in the JRODOS and ARGOS decision support systems) model has been transferred to a modelling platform enabling sub-models to be modified and replaced. Primarily, this has involved invoking process-based models for 137Cs and 90Sr that account for soil chemistry in simulating bioavailability and plant transfer. The implementation of such models can lead to quite dramatic differences in predicted activity concentrations of radionuclides in grass and milk compared to a default FDMT set-up for time periods later than a few weeks post deposition. Considering transfer within a spatial context, by combining information from the outputs of process-based models with illustrative soil maps, leads to the observation that the most elevated 137Cs and 90Sr concentrations in grass and milk might not necessarily occur in areas where deposition is highest. Not accounting for soil type when modelling food chain transfer might lead to the sub-optimal allocation of resources or misidentification of the most vulnerable areas in the long-term after an accidental release

Thirty years after the Chernobyl accident: what lessons have we learnt?

April 2016 sees the 30th anniversary of the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant. As a consequence of the accident populations were relocated in Belarus, Russia and Ukraine and remedial measures were put in place to reduce the entry of contaminants (primarily 134+137Cs) into the human food chain in a number of countries throughout Europe. Remedial measures are still today in place in a number of countries, and areas of the former Soviet Union remain abandoned. The Chernobyl accident led to a large resurgence in radioecological studies both to aid remediation and to be able to make future predictions on the post-accident situation, but, also in recognition that more knowledge was required to cope with future accidents. In this paper we discuss, what in the authors' opinions, were the advances made in radioecology as a consequence of the Chernobyl accident. The areas we identified as being significantly advanced following Chernobyl were: the importance of semi-natural ecosystems in human dose formation; the characterisation and environmental behaviour of ‘hot particles'; the development and application of countermeasures; the “fixation” and long term bioavailability of radiocaesium and; the effects of radiation on plants and animals

A new version of the ERICA tool to facilitate impact assessments of radioactivity on wild plants and animals

A new version of the ERICA Tool (version 1.2) was released in November 2014; this constitutes the first major update of the Tool since release in 2007. The key features of the update are presented in this article. Of particular note are new transfer databases extracted from an international compilation of concentration ratios (CRwo-media) and the modification of ‘extrapolation’ approaches used to select transfer data in cases where information is not available. Bayesian updating approaches have been used in some cases to draw on relevant information that would otherwise have been excluded in the process of deriving CRwo-media statistics. All of these efforts have in turn led to the requirement to update Environmental Media Concentration Limits (EMCLs) used in Tier 1 assessments. Some of the significant changes with regard to EMCLs are highlighte